What can the Dubai real estate market bring in 2026?

Real Estate Markets Around the World

Global housing markets have cooled on average, with the price-to-rent ratio declining in European and Asia-Pacific cities (except Tokyo), and lending remaining subdued. Mortgage rates, even after declining since 2023, are still roughly double their levels from 2020–2022. Dubai stands out from this average, as it has been among the cities with the strongest real price growth over the past four quarters.

Inflation-adjusted housing prices in Dubai increased by approximately 11% over the past four quarters and have returned to their 2014 peak.

Over the past five years, Dubai and Miami have been among the leaders, with average real price growth of around 50% (among the cities analyzed). Dubai Real Estate Market

Dubai’s population has increased by almost 15% since 2020, tightening supply and supporting rent growth.

Over the five-year period, rents grew faster than prices; however, more recently, prices have begun to outpace rent growth.

UBS points to volatility risks, including sensitivity to oil prices and the risk of periodic oversupply. Building permits suggest that construction activity could reach levels last seen in 2017, which the report associates with a deepening downturn.

Real housing prices increased by approximately 11% over the past four quarters and have returned to their 2014 level, while bubble risk has risen to an “elevated” level, though not high. UBS data also show that prices have begun to grow faster than rents and incomes, and that rising construction activity has historically increased the risk of a correction.

The market has shown strong price momentum, reporting record levels and high transaction volumes (over 50,000) in Q3 2025.Since 2020, Dubai’s real estate market has been among the best-performing globally. This is a verifiable fact confirmed by growth in both prices and transaction volumes, which have been closely tracked by international financial media. At the same time, it is also a fact that the market is in a later stage of the cycle.

Over the five-year period, rents grew faster than prices; however, in recent months, prices have begun to outpace rent growth.

A large number of projects will enter the market. What does this mean?

From 2025 onward, the delivery of a large number of new residential projects, especially apartments/condominiums, is officially planned. The history of Dubai as well as global markets shows that an increase in supply does not affect all properties equally.

In all previous cycles, interchangeable and oversupplied properties adjusted first, while unique assets, such as prime locations, waterfront properties (homes by the sea or lagoons), and villas, demonstrated greater resilience. This pattern is historically well documented.

How is the market different from the past?

The current cycle also differs from previous ones:

• stronger regulation

• escrow mechanisms

• lower leverage

• more diversified international demand

Cycles do not disappear as a result; only their course changes.

So what is the conclusion, and what can be expected in 2026? History clearly shows that liquidity-focused investors achieve better results than those who simply follow trends. The right question is: “Which assets are exposed to supply risk, and which are protected by liquidity?” As the market matures, quality, not trend, becomes the deciding factor. Dubai is already in this phase.

If you are interested in which properties are more liquid and what to avoid, schedule a free consultation.